🎯 At the 2018 World Cup, VAR contributed to a record 29 penalties in 64 matches. In 2026, despite the expanded 104-match tournament, only 21 penalties were awarded during regular and extra time—roughly half the rate many expected in the VAR era.
😬 Even more striking was the conversion rate, which dropped to a historic low. Just 15 of 21 penalties (71.4%) were converted in open play, while including penalty shootouts, teams scored only 66.1% of 62 attempts—the lowest conversion rate in World Cup history.
🇦🇷 The symbol of this “penalty lottery” was Lionel Messi, who missed two penalties during the tournament—the most ever by a single player at one World Cup.
🎯 Betting takeaway: teams at major tournaments are becoming increasingly disciplined in defense. There are fewer reckless challenges inside the penalty area, fewer risky one-on-one duels, and a stronger emphasis on positional defending. That helps explain why penalty numbers have fallen despite the expanded tournament and the continued use of VAR. As a result, the “Penalty Awarded” market should be approached more conservatively, especially in matches involving top national teams, which tend to defend more cautiously as the tournament progresses.
